Senate and Gubernatorial Projections - October 12

Senate:

Dem 59 -----------------------------------------------------------------Rep 41

Gubernatorial:

Dem 28 -------------------------------------------------------------Rep 22

Commentary:

North Carolina is going to be the state to watch this year. With competition in the senate, governor, and a competitive presidential race, I can see this state being swept by one ticket or the other. Right now the democratic ticket clings to the governor and presidential races, while the senate race is pulling away to a significant Hagan lead.

The Oregon senate race is a toss-up as ever. With the democratic advantage this year, and Oregon being a Democratic state, Merkley maintains a slight lead.

Alaska is tightening up. If Stevens is convicted, it will be good for the Democrats. Otherwise, Beigich still maintains a small lead.

Franken has now taken over Coleman's lead in Minnesota. As Obama's lead here grows, Franken may be the subject of a down ticket victory.

In Kentucky, McConnell's seat is now a slight GOP advantage. Once thought to be safe, Lunsford has been within the Margin of error. If the Democrats continue to have the advantage going into election day, the Senate Minority Whip could be bounced, simiar to Tom Daschle in 2004.

Georgia's race has also tightened. While Saxby Chambliss is still the projected favorite, this seat is a potential long-shot victory for the Democrats.

Mississippi's seat of Roger Wicker is also in danger. Ronnie Musgrove has closed the gap here substantially, and it may be the product of the region, as John Coryn's once safe seat in Texas, a state that's shifting bluer, comes to risk. This should be the Democrat's next target. Still, MS has an inherent GOP advantage.

Rossi maitains a slight lead over incumbent Gregoire in Washington's gubernatorial race.