Barack Obama (D) - 381 ----------------------------------------- John McCain (R) - 157
Shifts:Florida - From likely Obama to leans Obama. According to recent data, the race in Florida has tightened up a bit, with a few polls showing a McCain lead. Still, most data indicates a narrow Obama lead within the MoE.
North Carolina - From leans Obama to likely Obama. Polls out of NC consistently have shown an Obama lead over the last few weeks. Obama has been out of the margin of error in most of these polls, whereas the few with a McCain lead have been in the MoE. Overall, it is trending Obama.
West Virginia - From leans Obama to likely McCain. There was hope for Obama here, after an optimistic ARG poll. However, this dixiecrat state, one of the most reliably blue states, now turned reliably red, will be a long shot for Obama. West Virginia typically only supports southern Democrats. There is the potential for an upset here, as R2000 data indicates it's still in play. A good night for Obama could flip this state, but that would be in the 400 EV scenario.
Shifts:
Shifts:
Virginia - From likely Obama to Safe Obama. John McCain hasn't lead a single Virginia poll since the turn of October. With Obama outside the margin of error in all but the Mason Dixon poll (which used faulty 2004 weighting, completely disregarding the demographic shift), this state looks to have slipped from McCain's hands. This may be why John McCain is campaigning in blue states, he figures there is a good chance he lost Virginia and Colorado, and may need to look elsewhere for electoral votes.
Georgia - From likely McCain to leans McCain. In this state that narrowly went Clinton in 1992, and very narrowly went Dole in 1996, it's back in play. With the 3rd fastest population growth, demographics around cities have shifted more and more liberal. High African American turnout in early voting could spell trouble for McCain. This is likely to be the state to cause the one election night shocker.
Indiana - From leans McCain to leans Obama. Obama took a few commanding leads in Indiana polls last week. This state is definitely going to be one to watch. McCain has been putting more money here, and Palin was just recently there, indicating that internals may also be showing trouble.
Montana - From leans McCain to leans Obama. New polling shows a slight Obama lead, just outside the MoE. Being underpolled for weeks, much like Indiana, which was written off after the RNC, it's now back to it's pre RNC state. For most of the year, Obama was holding a lead within the MoE, until that shift. The gubernatorial race, along with Ron Paul on the ticket, may just shift this state into the Democratic column on November 4th.
Arizona - From safe McCain to likely McCain. In a polling shock, McCain's lead has shrunk to just 4 points. If information holds true, and the University poll released Tuesday has the lead again within the MoE, this state will become a leaner. Arizona has always been talked about as a swing state in 92, 96, 00, and 04 for a while. This is McCain's home state, where he's pretty popular, so this comes as a surprise. However, large Democratic advantages this year make this swinger back in play.
Democrats - 59 -----------------------------------------------Republicans - 41
Shifts:GA - Leans Martin(D) - to leans Chambliss(R). For a while, Martin had a small, insignificant lead, enough to call it a leaner for him. Since then, however, Chambliss has surged in the polls, to an insignificant lead in his favor. This is one to watch in November.
Democrats - 29 -------------------------------------- Republicans - 21
WA - From leans Rossi(R) - to leans Gregoire. Gregoire has surged in the polls, to a lead significantly outside the MoE in some, to a lead slightly outside the MoE in others. Still, all leads outside the MoE shift this to her column, potentially making it likely on the final prediction.
This is my last "snapshot" before I make my heavily calculated final predictions. The changes for that may be significant, as I will factor in trends and a lot of other data to make my final call. My final predictions, along with extra data, will be posted the night of November 3rd, as I will be in Boston from the 31st through the 3rd, unable to use Seashore (OS X) to do my graphics. (Great basic, Cocoa based paint app for OS X, I really recommend it, free and open source). Be sure to keep a window open as this blog updates live on election night, and attempts to make calls based on demographic data before the overly-cautious MSM does.
Thanks to all of my readers,
EV Predictor.
