My next electoral map update will be posted tomorrow or Wednesday, so I can fully understand the post-GOP convention bounce for McCain/Palin. It's hard to derive where we're at now, to see if it will quickly fade and whatnot. The McCain +10 among likely voters seems to be a statistical outlier, but we will see. I will be taking the time to map linear regression lines to the national poll data.
Swing states:
Michigan is now a swing state. New polling data (pre-GOP convention, mind you), points to a statistical tie. Look for this to be barely McCain in the next electoral update.
Pennsylvania is also now a swing state. Obama has/had a sizeable lead here, but new polling data is scarce. Palin's appeal to Reagan Democrats in the state make it temporarily up for grabs. This is likely to stay on Obama's side, however.
Kentucky, Mississippi, and Louisiana are now solid McCain. Evangelicals here are fired up, and these states are pretty much safe.
Iowa has also been downgraded. This state is also very impressionable, and it looks as if it may become a swing state. However, it has a lean towards Obama.
Wisconsin has also been downgraded.
Even after the GOP bounce, it still looks like McCain will end up gaining more ground, tightening the race. The debates will be the next, and most likely last event(s) to shift the polls.
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