Todays updates.
Montana: Changed from leaning Obama to toss-up. This state really wasn't leaning, it's truly a toss-up. Such a toss-up that a few outliers could lead everyone to believe one candidate is ahead.
With the pick of Sarah Palin as John McCain's running mate, Alaska, although lead by Obama, is now leaning McCain. Troopergate and other scandals still keep this tight, as Palin's approval rating as governor continues to drop. (If she drops out of the race, this will be back in play). Also noteworthy is how many Alaskans, even supporters of Palin, don't approve of McCain's choice. As more data comes in from this state, this prediction could change.
Missouri is tightening up again. We'll see what happens after the RNC, but for now, it's a toss-up, slightly favoring John McCain.
I still believe Obama's constant lead in Michigan, and further with more people trusting Obama on the economy will deliver him this state safely. However, many seem to think this is "in-play", I'll call it a lean for Obama.
Pennsylvania, called by some in play, I'm now calling this safe Democratic. With Biden on the ticket, and in general a blue-state, and great concentration on the economy, I don't think McCain should waste his time here.
The national trend. Gone from a toss-up to heavily Democratic. Obama averages +6.4 in the polls, and over 7.5 if you cut outliers. We'll see if this evens out after the RNC, but as for today, the prediction stands:
National Popular Vote Prediction:
Barack Obama: 52.3%
John McCain: 47.1%
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