In this map, we see a dramatic shift to Barack Obama's favor. I have tightened up some states as the election approaches, based on probability, it is significantly less liklely for major shifts in states that are an outside chance for one candidate or another. For example, Arizona, McCain's home state, has a solid Democratic base, and went for Bill Clinton in 1996. However, polling has been around the +8 for McCain, and in states with that margin, that have held that margin over the last few months and haven't fluxuated, they can now be considered solid/safe.New Mexico:
Polling in New Mexico, even at the height of the GOP bounce, still favored Obama by a heavy margin. Now that the bounce has settled, Obama is averaging around double digits here. Word has it that McCain has pulled most advertising from this area. This Bush state from 2004 will most likely light up Blue on Nov. 4th.
Colorado:
Obama has been consistently polling +4 to as high as +10 in multiple polls here. Many polls are putting Obama over 50%. This state is slowly slipping from McCain's grasp, and it will be increasingly difficult to take this state on election day, something really essential to his success. As this state slips, so do McCain's chances, greatly. For some reason, the DNC bounce stayed here, unlike the RNC bounce in MN.
Michigan:
Aside from one outlier, Obama is polling around +7 consistently here. This state went Democratic in 2000 and 2004, with the current GOP favorability, it was unlikely for this to flip. This one has solidified to Obama's column.
Pennsylvania:
New Marist and CNN polling are putting this out of the Margin of error, and in Obama's favor. Obama's numbers here continue to grow as economy dominates the race, and as the GOP bounce settles. Very similar to Michigan in it's electoral trends, and this state that would make McCain's chances increase is pulling from his reach.
New York:
It looked tight, but it's not. New York will go Blue this November, 99.9% sure.
Texas/South Dakota:
Same as NY, but for the Republicans.
Oregon:
Obama consistently winning in the double digits here. A state that Kerry won closely, but not tight, looks to be completely out of McCain's reach.
Washington:
Polling had the race here very close following the GOP convention, one poll even within the MoE. As new polling comes out, the race settles here to where it was pre-convention, with some extra favor in Obama's territory. A 8+ lead here is enough to keep it strongly in his category.
Arkansas:
McCain's double digit lead in this predominatly GOP territory will almost certainly hold through November 4th.
Swing states:
Ohio: Polling indicates this race tightening up from a steady McCain lead. Latest polling gives Obama the slight edge.
Missouri: A lack of polling as McCain started to take a 5 point lead (yet his temporary 7 point lead in FL kept polling there?). In any case, since Florida has shifted to about even (perhaps a slight Obama lead), look for Missouri to be very well back in play.
Virginia: Staying Blue on this map. It is starting to trend like Colorado is for Obama. Several polls put Obama up 4-6 points here. With the economy dominating the issues, and Virginia very focused on the state of the economy, this is starting to slip from McCain.
Nevada: New polling puts Obama at a slight lead. This is a toss-up if there ever is one. With that said, new voter registration gives Obama the slight lead.
Montana: McCain still only polling +4 here. Looking consistent, and an ever increasing longshot for the Dems in November.
West Virginia: New polls have this as only +4 for McCain. These are 5EVs he can't afford to loose. Obama may make it very competitive here.
Indiana: A suprise if there ever was one. Indiana may very well be a difference of .5% on election day. Polling has it as a statistical tie. Given the demographics, and previous elections, this should be kept as a VERY slight GOP lead. However, Democratic registration, and the likelyhood of more Indiana Dems to turn out may make the difference here.
North Carolina: Polls have this about as tied as can be. Could go either way. Simply averaged out, McCain holds the very slightest of advantages, and this will stay barely in his column as of now.
New Hampshire: McCain has lead in some older polls about a week ago here. The newest polls have small Obama leads, but above 50%, which is very important.
Florida: McCain's lead here has completely diminished. A statistical tie, with the newest data trending a small Obama lead, look for this to possibly be light blue next update.
National Trend: The national trend is now Strongly in Obama's favor, so let's analyze some national polling data:
As of September 24, 2008 (Most polling conducted between 9/20-9/23)
Gallup Tracking holds at 3% steady for Obama.
Rasmussen tracking, which weights conservatively compared to most by party (a good thing to have as a difference), jumped to Obama +2 today, indicating good 9/23 polling, a potential Obama jump possible.
Hotline/FD Jumped 3 points to Obama +6, another strong night of polling for Obama.
A Personal Message:
It remains to be seen what will happen, McCain suspending his campaign may very well backfire, as I have not been seeing too many good things said about it right now, and the economy is never good news for McCain. Bush speaking may only further damage McCain. On the flip side, McCain may highlight his leadership, and most likely keep the polls where they are now, but he is almost certain NOT to benefit from this.
McCain is falling into a pre-debate hole. The debates look to be a benefit toward Obama. He has worked to speak a lot more clearly in the last month, and his taller, younger, charasmatic, presedential stature reminds me a lot of the Nixon/Kennedy debate. Radio listeners thought Nixon won, TV viewers thought Obama. Well, 99% of viewers will be watching this debate, and as many as 80 million are expected to watch. The Biden/Palin debate will also be a clear favorite for Barack Obama. The order of debates also favors Obama, with Economy (most likely the dominant issue for the rest of the race), being last. If the economy continues on this path as the dominant role, Obama will be heavily favored.
McCain has fallen into a hole. He's about the lowest he's been since June, perhaps about the same. It is getting late for a game-changer, and the only two game changers, the debates, and the results of the Palin investigation, are most likely to be against him or neutral to him. Barring a turn of events to foreign affairs, or some major October suprise, Barack Obama looks as if he will win the election.
Presidential victory odds
Obama/Biden: 98%
McCain/Palin: 0%
Tie: 2%
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