A little bit of a convention bounce, but a number of swing state shifts. Still, this is unlikely to stay.
Updates-
What's solidified:
South Carolina - Palin has appealed to the conservative base here, and even when the convention bounce is all said and done, I expect Barr's numbers to sharply drop here, and a double digit win for McCain in November.
South Carolina - Palin has appealed to the conservative base here, and even when the convention bounce is all said and done, I expect Barr's numbers to sharply drop here, and a double digit win for McCain in November.
Texas - It looked weak for McCain for a while, but NRA and social issues will solidify this state for him on election day. Still, look for his win here to be below 10%.
Lousiana - Looks to be GOP safe. African Americans have been leaving after Katrina, and the state traditionally votes Republican unless a southern Democrat is on the ticket.
Kentucky - As expected, solid for McCain.
Mississippi - Also as expected, the polls have solidifed for McCain as well.
What's strengthened:
Georgia - Palin appeals to the evangelical base here. This southern state was only seen as on the table because of the lack of conservative support for McCain, combined with being Bob Barr's home state. I expect at least a 10% win for McCain in November. The only way Obama can win here is a massive young and African American turn out.
Georgia - Palin appeals to the evangelical base here. This southern state was only seen as on the table because of the lack of conservative support for McCain, combined with being Bob Barr's home state. I expect at least a 10% win for McCain in November. The only way Obama can win here is a massive young and African American turn out.
South Dakota - The conservative base is fired up, and this is the one warry state that will be tipped over the edge. The end results may be close, but Republicans can breathe here easier now.
What's leaning more:
Montana - Opening double digit leads here, McCain is most likely safe in this state. Worries among gun owners are qualmed by the pick of Palin. Still, Obama can pull this state with voter registration.
Missouri - The state has been trending GOP since the summer, even when it was the opposite of the national Obama trend. After the conservative base has been rallied, the GOP pockets of Missouri will be enough to keep this in McCain's favor barring an upset.
Indiana - A state that is traditionally solid or strong Republican, polls here still show it in a statistical tie. However, the polls have been recently breaking to higher margin in McCain's favor, again, a state that shouldn't be a swing state, it's likely the GOP base will pull this.
North Carolina - The 20% lead for McCain is most likely a statistical outlier. Still, I believe McCain is enjoying a stable lead here. Even in Obama's higest days, McCain still held his own here. Conservatives in south NC are more rallied. African American voters, and the potential for young college students (of which there are many in NC), to register to vote in this swing state, still have the potential to pull this state blue.
Ohio - I expect this to change soon, but recent trends indicate this is an advantage to McCain.
Shifts in swing states:
Nevada - From Barely Obama to Barely McCain
Virginia - From Barely Obama to Barely McCain
North Dakota - From Barely Obama to Barely McCain, I expect GOP enthusiasm to significantly rise here.
New Hampshire - A state full of independents, Palin and McCain's maverick image look to be enough to temporarily give them the edge here.
Downgrades:
Barely:
Pennsylvania - We'll see how Palin appeals to "soccer moms" in PA, but for now, the polls have tightened.
Michigan - The race here looks like it's tightening up. I'm not sure why, given Obama's favor on the economy, and this usually Democratic state is the hardest hit by it, but that's the way it is.
Wisconsin - Once thought to be safe for Obama, he can't hold a commanding enough lead here to assure me he's going to win. Still, he's ahead in every poll I see conducted here.
Washington - Not looking great here for Obama. Polls are tightening in what is supposed to be a safe state. This most likely will stay in his column, especially after the GOP bounce fades.
Oregon - Looking like the race is tightening up here. I still expect this safe for Obama.
Leaning:
New Jersey - McCain has closed a gap here, somewhat. However, it's doubtful this can go red. That said, the senior population here is strongly for McCain, much more than usual for Republican support in this state.
That's all for now. A swing state re-assessment and a new map will likely be updated over the weekend or early next week, as the GOP bounce fades, and we will see where the race stands going into the first presidential debate on September 26th.
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