The GOP convention bounce has settled, and it looks as if we are where we were right before the conventions, with a few swing state changes, so we will determine who had a better change on the map.
Updates:
Solid:
Iowa - Consistently polling 12-14% higher than McCain in this state bush won by just .2% in 04, it looks as if the starting ground for Obama's sucess wants him in the White House.
Strong:
New Jersey - Despite some polls hinting at a comeback, more data to refute that possiblity has been released. Republicans always gun it for this state (2000 and 2004), citing Democratic local corruption, but always fall reasonably short. Fact is, Democrats out register Republicans by a solid margin, and this isn't likely the election for NJ to go over.
Oregon - The state that was a swing, barely in Kerry's favor is now more secure than Washington, a state Kerry did much better in '04 than in Oregon. Still, consistent leads of 7-9% in the polls indicate this is a very long shot for McCain. If McCain starts winning states like this, Obama is in trouble.
South Dakota - No doubt here, Palin has excited the base in a normally very Republican state. This was a long shot compared to North Dakota, and this state is looking like a safe bet for the GOP, even if the margin of victory is small.
Leaning:
Washington - after close polling, Obama still holds the victory in all, and by about a 2-3% margin of victory. As of now, it will be tight, but don't expect McCain to carry these 11 electoral votes.
Wisconsin - Predictions for the McCain camp may have been a little bullish. It may have tightened up from the safe bet for Obama, but the state still substantially favors McCain. Just consider this, however. Bush was leading by 13% in September 2004, and lost by 4% to Kerry in November.
North Dakota - The conservative base in a state that went 24% Bush in 2004 is excited. Still, Democratic congress and split senate representation, as well as a liberal swing keep this in the race, still a long shot. Not worth the time for Obama to get it's 3 EVs.
Florida - McCain has been polling here ~+7 post convention. This bump may start to fade, as state polls follow national polls in accuracy. Still, the older population, especially older women, are going to make this difficult for Obama. Jewish and African American, as well as young turn out could make for an upset.
Changes in Swing States:
West Virginia - The suprise of this election. Only 3 polls are reported on pollster. However, the latest poll from this twice Clinton state is only a 4 point spread, with the previous 10, and first ~20. Looks to be tightening up. Dispatch the Clintons here to appeal to the blue-colar crowd, and this could be a race for it's 5 EVs. (From Strong to Barely)
Virginia - Polling indicates Obama slightly leads, around the MoE. Post GOP convention, the small McCain bounce has faded. The northern VA area, near DC, highly educated, are likely to be swayed Democratic by recent economic news.
New Hampshire - Obama holding around 5% in the polls, he seems to be holding this, in contrast to my previous prediction. Look for this to go "lean" soon, as it's getting out of McCain's reach.
Downgrades:
Barely/Swing:
Montana - For a while, it looked like the conservative base was excited. The governor's re-election and a Democratic swing seems to hold here, as Obama has closed in the polls. Overall, McCain made marginal gains here.
Indiana - Obama polling within 2 points here indicates that the conservative base hasn't been excited, or that most of it's electorate is GOP breaking indies. The proximity to Illinois has it posed for a possible upset.
Ohio - A constant but small lead for McCain keeps this as a swinger. Bush lead large here at this time in 2004, but he only ended up winning by 2%, or 100,000 votes. New voter registration could make this an upset.
North Carolina - A few outliers mislead people. McCain holds an advantage, but only by about 4%. African American and young tunrout is Obama's hope here, still, maybe not worth the focus given previous GOP victory margins.
Strong:
South Carolina - Tightening up a bit, but still a sizeable McCain lead. Obama isn't contesting it, but major, major changes in the election could swing this Obama's way, only if he ended up in a landslide.
Louisiana - Another long shot, but this two time Clinton state doesn't look so safe for McCain any more.
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