A bit on the predictions map, and national trend predictions

There are five categories a state can be placed in on the customizable RCP map.

-Solid Republican
-Leaning Republican
-Toss-up
-Leaning Democrat
-Solid Democrat

Solid predictions mean one thing: The state is solid. States like Kansas, Nebraska, and Idaho are safe republican. States like California, New York, Massachusetts, are safe for the Democrats.

A solid state can go to the other candidate in the election. If it's solid now, it means that it is going to take something to weaken it to leaning over time. A state that's solid the night before the election will not go to the other candidate (barring an unprecedented upset of either side).

Leaning means one of two things. There are leaning states, such as South Carolina or West Virginia, that according to other sites, are safe. Judging by polls, previous elections, campaign issues, etc, these states are most likely safe, but COULD, on a very remote chance, be in play.

States such as Colorado, or Montana, where the result is almost a dead heat, a statistical tie, things become a little different. If they poll and trend into one direction, they recieve a lean as well. For instance, at the time this post is being written, polls in Colorado are trending to Obama. With the convention in Colorado, the political spectrum in a heavily indpendent swing state could legitimately be shifting. Therefore, Colorado has an Obama lean.


At the bottom of each page, there is a picture the United States, with the words "National Trend" inside (from Pollster). This will be colored in the way the national popular vote is projected.

Leans generally mean polls are +3 in the direction, or anything less than +3, but with a growing trend. A safe national trend would likely only be if one candidate would have a sure victory.