No changes today in the count, just a number of changes in standings.Minnesota is downgraded from a solid Obama to a leaning Obama. John Kerry only won this territory by between 2% and 3%. While I think Obama will win this state safely, and by larger margins, it's only temporarily downgraded because of the possibility of Tim Pawlenty being selected as McCain's running mate. Still, even if Pawlenty is picked, in this election, it's a long shot for Republicans to carry this state.
Pennsylvania gets the same VP treatment. The selection of former governor Tom Ridge could bring these poll numbers closer. Although the numbers are within only an 8% margin, Republicans haven't carried this state since Bush Sr., and it's very remote in this election for that to change. Again, the selection of Ridge may tighten the race, but with Biden under the Democratic ticket, this is most likely out of the Republicans' reach.
Mississippi, downgraded from solid to leaning. This state is also most likely to be safe for the Republican ticket, going red in the last 10 elections. However, Obama's campaign is doing much better than Democrats usually do here, and the numbers have tightened a little. A long shot for the dems, but for now, worthy of a lean.
South Carolina returns to a strong McCain lead. Despite the fact that the poll numbers aren't that far (~8 to 12%), they're steady, which seems to indicate Obama can't break through here. Watch for this state's status to change a few times over the course of the election.
The national trend still continues to be a toss-up. While tracking polls (a statistical nightmare), show the race in a dead heat, the standard national polls have Obama up between 4 and 5 percent. Look for this to trend in Obama's direction after he speaks at Invesco field, and the first post convention polls take place. Overall, Obama is just inside the margin of error, holding this as a toss-up for another day.
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