August 26, 2008 - Electoral Map

First, a brief note on Hillary Clinton's speech.





Hillary Clinton did a fantastic job in convincing the American public that she is fully behind Barack Obama. Starting off speaking about Obama was a great move. Rather than being a look back, and getting gleamy eyed about her past, she came out looking energized to an Obama future. There were a number of things she did well in her speech. She tied examples, current issues, and especially womens rights, and stressed that these issues cannot be solved under John McCain. She showed that her beliefs on the issues, and those who supported her positions, are better off under Barack Obama. She really hit home with the PUMAs by addressing that they should not be in it for her, but rather for the issues. Hitting on women's rights, she hit home.



Now, on to the map:

I won't get into poll numbers tonight, but I'll explain the base map as I start this blog.

I have Pennsylvania as a strong Obama state. If McCain chooses Tom Ridge as his VP, this may change. Tom Ridge resonates well with the independant, conservative leaning suburbs. Shouldn't be enough to tip the state to a swing state, but it could put it to an Obama lead, with the very remote chance of a McCain upset.

Wisconsin, Michigan, Oregon, and Minnesota. Remember, trends are key in these predictions. The important issues to these states are heavily regarded and trusted in the Democratic party, especially the economy. Although polls are close, don't expect Obama to loose much, whereas McCain and undecided support is likely weaker.

New Mexico and Colorado, although close in the polls (Colorado moreso), are trending more liberally, especially with the convention being in Colorado. Colorado could potentially shift back to a toss-up.

Montana, typcially a red state, is trending more and more liberally. With the upset of John Tester over Conrad Burns in 2006, and the fact that Montana has a Democratic governor, look for this state to potentially go for Obama in 2008, the first time since Bill Clinton in 1992, (but not 96). It's certainly trending this way, especially since Bush victories were 20 and 25% respectively. It's also worth noting that polling was close during the Bush/Kerry election here, so this state can easily return to it's toss-up state.

Alaska Remains a toss-up, with the trend starting to close back to even, but the fact that Obama was polling up in this state, a McCain lead wouldn't make sense.