August 28, 2008 - Electoral Map

Just one update today.



New Mexico has gone from leaning Obama to solid Obama. This is interesting, for a swing state that Gore barely won in 2000, and Bush won in 2004. That said, the latino population is proving their dissatisfaction with the Republican administration this time around. Immigration issues also play a big role here. I can't see this state going red, especially with Obama polling as high as 13 points above John McCain.

A number of new polls, however, are showing a shift back in senator Obama's favor.

New polling data from Nevada seems to indicate the state leveling back to a tie, and most new polls show a slight lead for Obama. A New Opinion Research poll indicates he's up by 5% there.

Florida is a dead tie now, within the margin of error, some even leading for Obama. The same goes for Ohio, but with Obama up a little more there. I don't think the pick of Portland as McCain's VP will change there, as he's only regarded by Republicans in a predominantly conservative part of the state. He's relatively unknown elsewhere in the state.

Colorado is showing a dead heat, with a slight favor to Obama. This is good news for the Obama camp, since as long as he holds the Kerry states + Iowa and New Mexico (which he's certain to do), this would deliver the election without Ohio, Florida, or Virginia.

August 27, 2008 Electoral Map

No changes today in the count, just a number of changes in standings.

Minnesota is downgraded from a solid Obama to a leaning Obama. John Kerry only won this territory by between 2% and 3%. While I think Obama will win this state safely, and by larger margins, it's only temporarily downgraded because of the possibility of Tim Pawlenty being selected as McCain's running mate. Still, even if Pawlenty is picked, in this election, it's a long shot for Republicans to carry this state.

Pennsylvania gets the same VP treatment. The selection of former governor Tom Ridge could bring these poll numbers closer. Although the numbers are within only an 8% margin, Republicans haven't carried this state since Bush Sr., and it's very remote in this election for that to change. Again, the selection of Ridge may tighten the race, but with Biden under the Democratic ticket, this is most likely out of the Republicans' reach.

Mississippi, downgraded from solid to leaning. This state is also most likely to be safe for the Republican ticket, going red in the last 10 elections. However, Obama's campaign is doing much better than Democrats usually do here, and the numbers have tightened a little. A long shot for the dems, but for now, worthy of a lean.

South Carolina returns to a strong McCain lead. Despite the fact that the poll numbers aren't that far (~8 to 12%), they're steady, which seems to indicate Obama can't break through here. Watch for this state's status to change a few times over the course of the election.

The national trend still continues to be a toss-up. While tracking polls (a statistical nightmare), show the race in a dead heat, the standard national polls have Obama up between 4 and 5 percent. Look for this to trend in Obama's direction after he speaks at Invesco field, and the first post convention polls take place. Overall, Obama is just inside the margin of error, holding this as a toss-up for another day.

A bit on the predictions map, and national trend predictions

There are five categories a state can be placed in on the customizable RCP map.

-Solid Republican
-Leaning Republican
-Toss-up
-Leaning Democrat
-Solid Democrat

Solid predictions mean one thing: The state is solid. States like Kansas, Nebraska, and Idaho are safe republican. States like California, New York, Massachusetts, are safe for the Democrats.

A solid state can go to the other candidate in the election. If it's solid now, it means that it is going to take something to weaken it to leaning over time. A state that's solid the night before the election will not go to the other candidate (barring an unprecedented upset of either side).

Leaning means one of two things. There are leaning states, such as South Carolina or West Virginia, that according to other sites, are safe. Judging by polls, previous elections, campaign issues, etc, these states are most likely safe, but COULD, on a very remote chance, be in play.

States such as Colorado, or Montana, where the result is almost a dead heat, a statistical tie, things become a little different. If they poll and trend into one direction, they recieve a lean as well. For instance, at the time this post is being written, polls in Colorado are trending to Obama. With the convention in Colorado, the political spectrum in a heavily indpendent swing state could legitimately be shifting. Therefore, Colorado has an Obama lean.


At the bottom of each page, there is a picture the United States, with the words "National Trend" inside (from Pollster). This will be colored in the way the national popular vote is projected.

Leans generally mean polls are +3 in the direction, or anything less than +3, but with a growing trend. A safe national trend would likely only be if one candidate would have a sure victory.

August 26, 2008 - Electoral Map

First, a brief note on Hillary Clinton's speech.





Hillary Clinton did a fantastic job in convincing the American public that she is fully behind Barack Obama. Starting off speaking about Obama was a great move. Rather than being a look back, and getting gleamy eyed about her past, she came out looking energized to an Obama future. There were a number of things she did well in her speech. She tied examples, current issues, and especially womens rights, and stressed that these issues cannot be solved under John McCain. She showed that her beliefs on the issues, and those who supported her positions, are better off under Barack Obama. She really hit home with the PUMAs by addressing that they should not be in it for her, but rather for the issues. Hitting on women's rights, she hit home.



Now, on to the map:

I won't get into poll numbers tonight, but I'll explain the base map as I start this blog.

I have Pennsylvania as a strong Obama state. If McCain chooses Tom Ridge as his VP, this may change. Tom Ridge resonates well with the independant, conservative leaning suburbs. Shouldn't be enough to tip the state to a swing state, but it could put it to an Obama lead, with the very remote chance of a McCain upset.

Wisconsin, Michigan, Oregon, and Minnesota. Remember, trends are key in these predictions. The important issues to these states are heavily regarded and trusted in the Democratic party, especially the economy. Although polls are close, don't expect Obama to loose much, whereas McCain and undecided support is likely weaker.

New Mexico and Colorado, although close in the polls (Colorado moreso), are trending more liberally, especially with the convention being in Colorado. Colorado could potentially shift back to a toss-up.

Montana, typcially a red state, is trending more and more liberally. With the upset of John Tester over Conrad Burns in 2006, and the fact that Montana has a Democratic governor, look for this state to potentially go for Obama in 2008, the first time since Bill Clinton in 1992, (but not 96). It's certainly trending this way, especially since Bush victories were 20 and 25% respectively. It's also worth noting that polling was close during the Bush/Kerry election here, so this state can easily return to it's toss-up state.

Alaska Remains a toss-up, with the trend starting to close back to even, but the fact that Obama was polling up in this state, a McCain lead wouldn't make sense.