Breaking: EVP Projects Saxby Chambliss Winner in Georgia

EVP has enough data to project Saxby Chambliss will retain his Senior senate seat in the state of Georgia.

Chambliss is outperforming his November 4th totals in nearly all counties currently reporting, and Martin is underperforming in the same respect.

Low turnout historically helps the Republican party, and for that, today's low turnout is enough to keep Chambliss in the senate.

Senate count:
58 Dem, 41 Rep, 1 Undec.

Electoral Map - Final

Barack Obama (D) - 365
John McCain (R) - 173



Check for a final senate map and house count later in December. Thanks again to all of my readers!

Update - November 23, 2008

EVP Can now project a final map.

John McCain has carried the state of Missouri, resulting in a final electoral vote total of
Barack Obama (D): 365
John McCain (R): 173

In the Senate, we are still calling Minnesota anyone's game, at 50/50 odds.
Georgia, however, is 85/15 in favor of Chambliss, as African American turnout is likely to be lower in the run-off.

BREAKING: EVP Predicts Begich Winner of Senate Seat in AK

11/12/08 (9:05 PM):
Given the results of the counting of absentee/provisional ballots in Alaska, Begich has taken a ~400 vote lead. In the counting of these provisional ballots, Begich took roughly 50% of the votes, to Stevens' 42%. The remaining precincts are from heavily Democratic areas, and therefore EVP projects that Mark Begich will pick up the 58th Senate Seats for the Democrats, becoming the junior senator from Alaska.

Results Update - November 11, 2008

News:

Barack Obama has carried a single electoral vote from the second congressional district (Omaha area) in Nebraska, narrowly. This is the first time any state has split electoral votes. The Nebraska GOP wants to change the state law to assign all electoral votes next election.

The final results from Florida show the results were slightly closer than originally anticipated.

South Dakota ended up being .1% closer than North Dakota, which comes very unexpected.

As for the Senate, only one change, Jeff Merkley, as projected, narrowly carried the Oregon senate seat. The last counties to come in were all heavily democratic. Now we wait on Minnesota, Alaska, and the Georgia Runoff.

I give odds on Minnesota of 60 to 40 Franken
...On Alaska 65 to 35 Begich
...On Georgia 80 to 20 Chambliss.

November 5, 2008 - Preliminary Election Results

44th President Elect of the United States: Barack Hussein Obama Jr (D)

How did we do?

Presidential:

We almost nailed it, Indiana came as a shocker. Virginia was closer than anticipated, Ohio was larger than expected, as was Florida. Arizona ended up not being close, NE-2 was a shocker, ND wasn't as close as expected, and Nevada was a blowout. Georiga is still up in the air. McCain is going to take it, but it may end up being closer than originally anticipated.

Senate:

The races are closer than anticipated, except Hagan's blowout over Dole. Merkley is an unexpected horse race, as is Begich. The Coleman v Franken race was expected.

Governor:

Nailed it.

More later as we get definitive results...

Final Predictions

Barack Obama (D) - 353 ------------------------------- John McCain (R) - 185

Electoral Map Update - Second To Last Update

Barack Obama (D) - 381 ----------------------------------------- John McCain (R) - 157

Shifts:

Florida - From likely Obama to leans Obama.  According to recent data, the race in Florida has tightened up a bit, with a few polls showing a McCain lead.  Still, most data indicates a narrow Obama lead within the MoE.

North Carolina - From leans Obama to likely Obama.  Polls out of NC consistently have shown an Obama lead over the last few weeks.  Obama has been out of the margin of error in most of these polls, whereas the few with a McCain lead have been in the MoE.  Overall, it is trending Obama.

West Virginia - From leans Obama to likely McCain.  There was hope for Obama here, after an optimistic ARG poll.  However, this dixiecrat state, one of the most reliably blue states, now turned reliably red, will be a long shot for Obama.  West Virginia typically only supports southern Democrats.  There is the potential for an upset here, as R2000 data indicates it's still in play.  A good night for Obama could flip this state, but that would be in the 400 EV scenario.  

Virginia - From likely Obama to Safe Obama.  John McCain hasn't lead a single Virginia poll since the turn of October.  With Obama outside the margin of error in all but the Mason Dixon poll (which used faulty 2004 weighting, completely disregarding the demographic shift), this state looks to have slipped from McCain's hands.  This may be why John McCain is campaigning in blue states, he figures there is a good chance he lost Virginia and Colorado, and may need to look elsewhere for electoral votes.

Georgia - From likely McCain to leans McCain.  In this state that narrowly went Clinton in 1992, and very narrowly went Dole in 1996, it's back in play.  With the 3rd fastest population growth, demographics around cities have shifted more and more liberal.  High African American turnout in early voting could spell trouble for McCain.  This is likely to be the state to cause the one election night shocker.  

Indiana - From leans McCain to leans Obama.  Obama took a few commanding leads in Indiana polls last week.  This state is definitely going to be one to watch.  McCain has been putting more money here, and Palin was just recently there, indicating that internals may also be showing trouble.

Montana - From leans McCain to leans Obama.  New polling shows a slight Obama lead, just outside the MoE.  Being underpolled for weeks, much like Indiana, which was written off after the RNC, it's now back to it's pre RNC state.  For most of the year, Obama was holding a lead within the MoE, until that shift.  The gubernatorial race, along with Ron Paul on the ticket, may just shift this state into the Democratic column on November 4th.  

Arizona - From safe McCain to likely McCain.  In a polling shock, McCain's lead has shrunk to just 4 points.  If information holds true, and the University poll released Tuesday has the lead again within the MoE, this state will become a leaner.  Arizona has always been talked about as a swing state in 92, 96, 00, and 04 for a while.  This is McCain's home state, where he's pretty popular, so this comes as a surprise.  However, large Democratic advantages this year make this swinger back in play.  

Democrats - 59 -----------------------------------------------Republicans - 41

Shifts:

GA - Leans Martin(D) - to leans Chambliss(R).  For a while, Martin had a small, insignificant lead, enough to call it a leaner for him.  Since then, however, Chambliss has surged in the polls, to an insignificant lead in his favor.  This is one to watch in November.

Democrats - 29  -------------------------------------- Republicans - 21

Shifts:

WA - From leans Rossi(R) - to leans Gregoire.  Gregoire has surged in the polls, to a lead significantly outside the MoE in some, to a lead slightly outside the MoE in others.  Still, all leads outside the MoE shift this to her column, potentially making it likely on the final prediction.

This is my last "snapshot" before I make my heavily calculated final predictions.  The changes for that may be significant, as I will factor in trends and a lot of other data to make my final call.  My final predictions, along with extra data, will be posted the night of November 3rd, as I will be in Boston from the 31st through the 3rd, unable to use Seashore (OS X) to do my graphics.  (Great basic, Cocoa based paint app for OS X, I really recommend it, free and open source).  Be sure to keep a window open as this blog updates live on election night, and attempts to make calls based on demographic data before the overly-cautious MSM does.

Thanks to all of my readers,

EV Predictor.  

Electoral Map Update - October 13

Barack Obama (D) - 367 ----------------------------------- John McCain (R) - 171

Polling is getting more frequent, therefore I will be updating these predictions 2-5 times weekly.  

New Mexico, polling here is absent.  No one is campaigning here.  Last polls show a decent Obama lead, this isn't changing between now and election day.

Colorado, Obama continues to maintain a 6 to 10 point lead here.  It looks as if he will carry this Democratically trending state.  This is most likely enough to tip the scales, the DNC being here may have been the best move of this election for the Obama camp. 

Missouri, new polling in this volatile electorate, trending democratic state indicates that Obama has pulled ahead, sizably.  A new Survey USA is Obama +8, and the right-leaning Rasmussen has Obama +3, more than they have him in Ohio.  

North Dakota, much like North Carolina, trended heavily Republican after the RNC.  Now it's back to a tie (slight Obama lead), similar to NC.  This was tight up until the pick.  I guess because it has only 3 electoral votes, no one polled here.  I expect if the race tightens, it will go closely republican.  As of now, with the current trend, and Republican corruption in a state where all representatives are majorly democratic, Obama gets the edge.

Montana, a direct product of the North Dakota polling.  I think if new polling comes out here, Obama may have a 3-4 point edge.

So, I've been asked why my polling typically favors Obama.

Simple.  Trends favor Obama.  He has a better GOTV initiative, he has a more enthusiastic base (see:  GA early voting), and if independents continue to break the way that they do, my model should be fairly accurate.

Look for Florida to potentially go dark blue next week.  If McCain doesn't have a dramatic win in the debate, I will begin to predict these numbers as solidified.  Next week, if a candidate maintains 50%+ in a state, they will be more inclined to carry the state.

Senate and Gubernatorial Projections - October 12

Senate:

Dem 59 -----------------------------------------------------------------Rep 41

Gubernatorial:

Dem 28 -------------------------------------------------------------Rep 22

Commentary:

North Carolina is going to be the state to watch this year. With competition in the senate, governor, and a competitive presidential race, I can see this state being swept by one ticket or the other. Right now the democratic ticket clings to the governor and presidential races, while the senate race is pulling away to a significant Hagan lead.

The Oregon senate race is a toss-up as ever. With the democratic advantage this year, and Oregon being a Democratic state, Merkley maintains a slight lead.

Alaska is tightening up. If Stevens is convicted, it will be good for the Democrats. Otherwise, Beigich still maintains a small lead.

Franken has now taken over Coleman's lead in Minnesota. As Obama's lead here grows, Franken may be the subject of a down ticket victory.

In Kentucky, McConnell's seat is now a slight GOP advantage. Once thought to be safe, Lunsford has been within the Margin of error. If the Democrats continue to have the advantage going into election day, the Senate Minority Whip could be bounced, simiar to Tom Daschle in 2004.

Georgia's race has also tightened. While Saxby Chambliss is still the projected favorite, this seat is a potential long-shot victory for the Democrats.

Mississippi's seat of Roger Wicker is also in danger. Ronnie Musgrove has closed the gap here substantially, and it may be the product of the region, as John Coryn's once safe seat in Texas, a state that's shifting bluer, comes to risk. This should be the Democrat's next target. Still, MS has an inherent GOP advantage.

Rossi maitains a slight lead over incumbent Gregoire in Washington's gubernatorial race.

Barack Obama (D) - 364 ------------------------------------------------ John McCain (R) - 174

New Key:

Electoral Map Update - October 2

Barack Obama (D) - 364 John McCain (R) - 174

Downgraded
Upgraded

Change to DEM
Change to GOP

Alabama	Safe GOP
Alaska	Safe GOP
Arizona	Safe GOP
Arkansas	Safe GOP
California	Safe DEM
Colorado	Leaning DEM
Connecticut	Safe DEM
Delaware	Safe DEM
Florida	Tilts DEM
Georgia	Leaning GOP
Hawaii	Safe DEM
Idaho	Safe GOP
Illinois	Safe DEM
Indiana	Tilts GOP
Iowa	Safe DEM
Kansas	Safe GOP
Kentucky	Safe GOP
Louisiana	Safe GOP
Maine	Safe DEM
Maryland	Safe DEM
Massachusetts	Safe DEM
Michigan	Strong DEM
Minnesota	Strong DEM
Mississippi	Strong GOP
Missouri	Tilts DEM
Montana	Strong GOP
Nebraska	Safe GOP
Nevada	Tilts DEM
New Hampshire	Leaning DEM
New Jersey	Safe DEM
New Mexico	Safe DEM
New York	Safe DEM
North Carolina	Tilts DEM
North Dakota	Strong GOP
Ohio	Tilts DEM
Oklahoma	Safe GOP
Oregon	Safe DEM
Pennsylvania	Strong DEM
Rhode Island	Safe DEM
South Carolina	Safe GOP
South Dakota	Safe GOP
Tennessee	Safe GOP
Texas	Strong GOP
Utah	Safe GOP
Vermont	Safe DEM
Virginia	Leaning DEM
Washington	Safe DEM
West Virginia	Tilts GOP
Wisconsin	Strong DEM
Wyoming	Safe GOP

Previous Electoral Result - 1992

William J. Clinton - 372 George H. W. Bush - 166


The electoral votes were slightly different for the time than labeled on this map.

September 24 Map Update

Barack Obama(D): 311 John McCain(R): 227
In this map, we see a dramatic shift to Barack Obama's favor. I have tightened up some states as the election approaches, based on probability, it is significantly less liklely for major shifts in states that are an outside chance for one candidate or another. For example, Arizona, McCain's home state, has a solid Democratic base, and went for Bill Clinton in 1996. However, polling has been around the +8 for McCain, and in states with that margin, that have held that margin over the last few months and haven't fluxuated, they can now be considered solid/safe.

New Mexico:
Polling in New Mexico, even at the height of the GOP bounce, still favored Obama by a heavy margin. Now that the bounce has settled, Obama is averaging around double digits here. Word has it that McCain has pulled most advertising from this area. This Bush state from 2004 will most likely light up Blue on Nov. 4th.

Colorado:
Obama has been consistently polling +4 to as high as +10 in multiple polls here. Many polls are putting Obama over 50%. This state is slowly slipping from McCain's grasp, and it will be increasingly difficult to take this state on election day, something really essential to his success. As this state slips, so do McCain's chances, greatly. For some reason, the DNC bounce stayed here, unlike the RNC bounce in MN.

Michigan:
Aside from one outlier, Obama is polling around +7 consistently here. This state went Democratic in 2000 and 2004, with the current GOP favorability, it was unlikely for this to flip. This one has solidified to Obama's column.

Pennsylvania:
New Marist and CNN polling are putting this out of the Margin of error, and in Obama's favor. Obama's numbers here continue to grow as economy dominates the race, and as the GOP bounce settles. Very similar to Michigan in it's electoral trends, and this state that would make McCain's chances increase is pulling from his reach.

New York:
It looked tight, but it's not. New York will go Blue this November, 99.9% sure.

Texas/South Dakota:
Same as NY, but for the Republicans.

Oregon:
Obama consistently winning in the double digits here. A state that Kerry won closely, but not tight, looks to be completely out of McCain's reach.

Washington:
Polling had the race here very close following the GOP convention, one poll even within the MoE. As new polling comes out, the race settles here to where it was pre-convention, with some extra favor in Obama's territory. A 8+ lead here is enough to keep it strongly in his category.

Arkansas:
McCain's double digit lead in this predominatly GOP territory will almost certainly hold through November 4th.

Swing states:


Ohio: Polling indicates this race tightening up from a steady McCain lead. Latest polling gives Obama the slight edge.

Missouri: A lack of polling as McCain started to take a 5 point lead (yet his temporary 7 point lead in FL kept polling there?). In any case, since Florida has shifted to about even (perhaps a slight Obama lead), look for Missouri to be very well back in play.

Virginia: Staying Blue on this map. It is starting to trend like Colorado is for Obama. Several polls put Obama up 4-6 points here. With the economy dominating the issues, and Virginia very focused on the state of the economy, this is starting to slip from McCain.

Nevada: New polling puts Obama at a slight lead. This is a toss-up if there ever is one. With that said, new voter registration gives Obama the slight lead.

Montana: McCain still only polling +4 here. Looking consistent, and an ever increasing longshot for the Dems in November.

West Virginia: New polls have this as only +4 for McCain. These are 5EVs he can't afford to loose. Obama may make it very competitive here.

Indiana: A suprise if there ever was one. Indiana may very well be a difference of .5% on election day. Polling has it as a statistical tie. Given the demographics, and previous elections, this should be kept as a VERY slight GOP lead. However, Democratic registration, and the likelyhood of more Indiana Dems to turn out may make the difference here.

North Carolina: Polls have this about as tied as can be. Could go either way. Simply averaged out, McCain holds the very slightest of advantages, and this will stay barely in his column as of now.

New Hampshire: McCain has lead in some older polls about a week ago here. The newest polls have small Obama leads, but above 50%, which is very important.

Florida: McCain's lead here has completely diminished. A statistical tie, with the newest data trending a small Obama lead, look for this to possibly be light blue next update.

National Trend: The national trend is now Strongly in Obama's favor, so let's analyze some national polling data:
As of September 24, 2008 (Most polling conducted between 9/20-9/23)
Gallup Tracking holds at 3% steady for Obama.
Rasmussen tracking, which weights conservatively compared to most by party (a good thing to have as a difference), jumped to Obama +2 today, indicating good 9/23 polling, a potential Obama jump possible.
Hotline/FD Jumped 3 points to Obama +6, another strong night of polling for Obama.

A Personal Message:
It remains to be seen what will happen, McCain suspending his campaign may very well backfire, as I have not been seeing too many good things said about it right now, and the economy is never good news for McCain. Bush speaking may only further damage McCain. On the flip side, McCain may highlight his leadership, and most likely keep the polls where they are now, but he is almost certain NOT to benefit from this.

McCain is falling into a pre-debate hole. The debates look to be a benefit toward Obama. He has worked to speak a lot more clearly in the last month, and his taller, younger, charasmatic, presedential stature reminds me a lot of the Nixon/Kennedy debate. Radio listeners thought Nixon won, TV viewers thought Obama. Well, 99% of viewers will be watching this debate, and as many as 80 million are expected to watch. The Biden/Palin debate will also be a clear favorite for Barack Obama. The order of debates also favors Obama, with Economy (most likely the dominant issue for the rest of the race), being last. If the economy continues on this path as the dominant role, Obama will be heavily favored.

McCain has fallen into a hole. He's about the lowest he's been since June, perhaps about the same. It is getting late for a game-changer, and the only two game changers, the debates, and the results of the Palin investigation, are most likely to be against him or neutral to him. Barring a turn of events to foreign affairs, or some major October suprise, Barack Obama looks as if he will win the election.


Presidential victory odds
Obama/Biden: 98%
McCain/Palin: 0%
Tie: 2%

Electoral Map Update, Swing State Update, September 16

Barack Obama (D): 286 John McCain(R): 252

The GOP convention bounce has settled, and it looks as if we are where we were right before the conventions, with a few swing state changes, so we will determine who had a better change on the map.

Updates:

Solid:

Iowa - Consistently polling 12-14% higher than McCain in this state bush won by just .2% in 04, it looks as if the starting ground for Obama's sucess wants him in the White House.

Strong:

New Jersey - Despite some polls hinting at a comeback, more data to refute that possiblity has been released. Republicans always gun it for this state (2000 and 2004), citing Democratic local corruption, but always fall reasonably short. Fact is, Democrats out register Republicans by a solid margin, and this isn't likely the election for NJ to go over.

Oregon - The state that was a swing, barely in Kerry's favor is now more secure than Washington, a state Kerry did much better in '04 than in Oregon. Still, consistent leads of 7-9% in the polls indicate this is a very long shot for McCain. If McCain starts winning states like this, Obama is in trouble.

South Dakota - No doubt here, Palin has excited the base in a normally very Republican state. This was a long shot compared to North Dakota, and this state is looking like a safe bet for the GOP, even if the margin of victory is small.

Leaning:

Washington - after close polling, Obama still holds the victory in all, and by about a 2-3% margin of victory. As of now, it will be tight, but don't expect McCain to carry these 11 electoral votes.

Wisconsin - Predictions for the McCain camp may have been a little bullish. It may have tightened up from the safe bet for Obama, but the state still substantially favors McCain. Just consider this, however. Bush was leading by 13% in September 2004, and lost by 4% to Kerry in November.

North Dakota - The conservative base in a state that went 24% Bush in 2004 is excited. Still, Democratic congress and split senate representation, as well as a liberal swing keep this in the race, still a long shot. Not worth the time for Obama to get it's 3 EVs.

Florida - McCain has been polling here ~+7 post convention. This bump may start to fade, as state polls follow national polls in accuracy. Still, the older population, especially older women, are going to make this difficult for Obama. Jewish and African American, as well as young turn out could make for an upset.

Changes in Swing States:

West Virginia - The suprise of this election. Only 3 polls are reported on pollster. However, the latest poll from this twice Clinton state is only a 4 point spread, with the previous 10, and first ~20. Looks to be tightening up. Dispatch the Clintons here to appeal to the blue-colar crowd, and this could be a race for it's 5 EVs. (From Strong to Barely)

Virginia - Polling indicates Obama slightly leads, around the MoE. Post GOP convention, the small McCain bounce has faded. The northern VA area, near DC, highly educated, are likely to be swayed Democratic by recent economic news.

New Hampshire - Obama holding around 5% in the polls, he seems to be holding this, in contrast to my previous prediction. Look for this to go "lean" soon, as it's getting out of McCain's reach.

Downgrades:

Barely/Swing:

Montana - For a while, it looked like the conservative base was excited. The governor's re-election and a Democratic swing seems to hold here, as Obama has closed in the polls. Overall, McCain made marginal gains here.

Indiana - Obama polling within 2 points here indicates that the conservative base hasn't been excited, or that most of it's electorate is GOP breaking indies. The proximity to Illinois has it posed for a possible upset.

Ohio - A constant but small lead for McCain keeps this as a swinger. Bush lead large here at this time in 2004, but he only ended up winning by 2%, or 100,000 votes. New voter registration could make this an upset.

North Carolina - A few outliers mislead people. McCain holds an advantage, but only by about 4%. African American and young tunrout is Obama's hope here, still, maybe not worth the focus given previous GOP victory margins.

Strong:

South Carolina - Tightening up a bit, but still a sizeable McCain lead. Obama isn't contesting it, but major, major changes in the election could swing this Obama's way, only if he ended up in a landslide.

Louisiana - Another long shot, but this two time Clinton state doesn't look so safe for McCain any more.

Past Electoral Map - 2004

During this election season, I will occasionally post the results of a previous election under my color coding system, for comparison to today's polling trends.



Here are the results of 2004, with the follwing attributes, as I will use on election night (current are based on trends)



0-3: Barely

3-5: Leaning

5-10: Strong

10+: Solid



George W. Bush(R): 286 John F. Kerry(D): 252

September 10 2008 - Map Update

Barack Obama (D): 269 John McCain (R): 269

A little bit of a convention bounce, but a number of swing state shifts. Still, this is unlikely to stay.

Updates-

What's solidified:
South Carolina - Palin has appealed to the conservative base here, and even when the convention bounce is all said and done, I expect Barr's numbers to sharply drop here, and a double digit win for McCain in November.

Texas - It looked weak for McCain for a while, but NRA and social issues will solidify this state for him on election day. Still, look for his win here to be below 10%.

Lousiana - Looks to be GOP safe. African Americans have been leaving after Katrina, and the state traditionally votes Republican unless a southern Democrat is on the ticket.

Kentucky - As expected, solid for McCain.

Mississippi - Also as expected, the polls have solidifed for McCain as well.

What's strengthened:
Georgia - Palin appeals to the evangelical base here. This southern state was only seen as on the table because of the lack of conservative support for McCain, combined with being Bob Barr's home state. I expect at least a 10% win for McCain in November. The only way Obama can win here is a massive young and African American turn out.

South Dakota - The conservative base is fired up, and this is the one warry state that will be tipped over the edge. The end results may be close, but Republicans can breathe here easier now.

What's leaning more:

Montana - Opening double digit leads here, McCain is most likely safe in this state. Worries among gun owners are qualmed by the pick of Palin. Still, Obama can pull this state with voter registration.

Missouri - The state has been trending GOP since the summer, even when it was the opposite of the national Obama trend. After the conservative base has been rallied, the GOP pockets of Missouri will be enough to keep this in McCain's favor barring an upset.

Indiana - A state that is traditionally solid or strong Republican, polls here still show it in a statistical tie. However, the polls have been recently breaking to higher margin in McCain's favor, again, a state that shouldn't be a swing state, it's likely the GOP base will pull this.

North Carolina - The 20% lead for McCain is most likely a statistical outlier. Still, I believe McCain is enjoying a stable lead here. Even in Obama's higest days, McCain still held his own here. Conservatives in south NC are more rallied. African American voters, and the potential for young college students (of which there are many in NC), to register to vote in this swing state, still have the potential to pull this state blue.

Ohio - I expect this to change soon, but recent trends indicate this is an advantage to McCain.

Shifts in swing states:

Nevada - From Barely Obama to Barely McCain

Virginia - From Barely Obama to Barely McCain

North Dakota - From Barely Obama to Barely McCain, I expect GOP enthusiasm to significantly rise here.

New Hampshire - A state full of independents, Palin and McCain's maverick image look to be enough to temporarily give them the edge here.

Downgrades:

Barely:

Pennsylvania - We'll see how Palin appeals to "soccer moms" in PA, but for now, the polls have tightened.

Michigan - The race here looks like it's tightening up. I'm not sure why, given Obama's favor on the economy, and this usually Democratic state is the hardest hit by it, but that's the way it is.

Wisconsin - Once thought to be safe for Obama, he can't hold a commanding enough lead here to assure me he's going to win. Still, he's ahead in every poll I see conducted here.

Washington - Not looking great here for Obama. Polls are tightening in what is supposed to be a safe state. This most likely will stay in his column, especially after the GOP bounce fades.

Oregon - Looking like the race is tightening up here. I still expect this safe for Obama.

Leaning:

New Jersey - McCain has closed a gap here, somewhat. However, it's doubtful this can go red. That said, the senior population here is strongly for McCain, much more than usual for Republican support in this state.

That's all for now. A swing state re-assessment and a new map will likely be updated over the weekend or early next week, as the GOP bounce fades, and we will see where the race stands going into the first presidential debate on September 26th.

Swing State Update - September 8, 2008

Swing state/solid state/lean state update.

My next electoral map update will be posted tomorrow or Wednesday, so I can fully understand the post-GOP convention bounce for McCain/Palin.  It's hard to derive where we're at now, to see if it will quickly fade and whatnot.  The McCain +10 among likely voters seems to be a statistical outlier, but we will see.  I will be taking the time to map linear regression lines to the national poll data.

Swing states:

Michigan is now a swing state.  New polling data (pre-GOP convention, mind you), points to a statistical tie.  Look for this to be barely McCain in the next electoral update.

Pennsylvania is also now a swing state.  Obama has/had a sizeable lead here, but new polling data is scarce.  Palin's appeal to Reagan Democrats in the state make it temporarily up for grabs.  This is likely to stay on Obama's side, however.

Kentucky, Mississippi, and Louisiana are now solid McCain.  Evangelicals here are fired up, and these states are pretty much safe.

Iowa has also been downgraded.  This state is also very impressionable, and it looks as if it may become a swing state.  However, it has a lean towards Obama.

Wisconsin has also been downgraded.

Even after the GOP bounce, it still looks like McCain will end up gaining more ground, tightening the race.  The debates will be the next, and most likely last event(s) to shift the polls.

New Map System - September 5, 2008

It's post convention, and another site telling you what's a toss-up without making a solid prediction is simply useless.  

So here's the new map.  

So here's the current status:

Obama:  317

McCain:  221

Solid Obama:  153

Strong Obama:  45

Leaning Obama: 62

Barely Obama:  57

Solid McCain:  53

Strong McCain:  86

Leaning McCain:  15

Barely McCain:   67

Election Night info

It's a while off, but it's worth mentioning how I plan on covering election night and the results.

First, the final prediction.  The final prediction is, based on the trend of the nation on November 3rd, the best prediction of the final election results.

Here is what will go down on election night.  Starting from the moment the polls close (7:00 PM in some locations), and every 30 minutes following, I will update the map with "Preliminary Election Results:  x:xx PM, or AM).  

Once a candidate has secured enough electoral votes to win, that candidate will be projected the winner.  However, the results will continue to update every 30 minutes in polling time.  

After all polls are closed, I will update the map every time a state or group of states is updated to a predicted victory for a given candidate, even if a candidate has already secured enough delegates.  Once all states have reached a conclusive state of prediction, that will be labed "Preliminary Election Results:  Final".  This status is when a majority of votes are in for every state, and a prediction for every state can be made.

Once 95-99% of precincts are reporting on November 5th, "Election Results:  Final" will be posted, showing each state as either a lean or solid victory.  This will be posted side by side by the final electoral prediction map.  If for some reason a state or two end up in controversy, it will be still labeled as a toss-up, and the map will be updated as results come in.

In December, when the delegates do the official vote, the final image will be posted with the results.  A breakdown of the election night will also be posted November 5th, and recaped after the December nomination.

September 3 2008 - Map Update

Todays updates.

Montana: Changed from leaning Obama to toss-up. This state really wasn't leaning, it's truly a toss-up. Such a toss-up that a few outliers could lead everyone to believe one candidate is ahead.

With the pick of Sarah Palin as John McCain's running mate, Alaska, although lead by Obama, is now leaning McCain. Troopergate and other scandals still keep this tight, as Palin's approval rating as governor continues to drop. (If she drops out of the race, this will be back in play). Also noteworthy is how many Alaskans, even supporters of Palin, don't approve of McCain's choice. As more data comes in from this state, this prediction could change.

Missouri is tightening up again. We'll see what happens after the RNC, but for now, it's a toss-up, slightly favoring John McCain.

I still believe Obama's constant lead in Michigan, and further with more people trusting Obama on the economy will deliver him this state safely. However, many seem to think this is "in-play", I'll call it a lean for Obama.

Pennsylvania, called by some in play, I'm now calling this safe Democratic. With Biden on the ticket, and in general a blue-state, and great concentration on the economy, I don't think McCain should waste his time here.

The national trend. Gone from a toss-up to heavily Democratic. Obama averages +6.4 in the polls, and over 7.5 if you cut outliers. We'll see if this evens out after the RNC, but as for today, the prediction stands:

National Popular Vote Prediction:
Barack Obama: 52.3%
John McCain: 47.1%

August 28, 2008 - Electoral Map

Just one update today.



New Mexico has gone from leaning Obama to solid Obama. This is interesting, for a swing state that Gore barely won in 2000, and Bush won in 2004. That said, the latino population is proving their dissatisfaction with the Republican administration this time around. Immigration issues also play a big role here. I can't see this state going red, especially with Obama polling as high as 13 points above John McCain.

A number of new polls, however, are showing a shift back in senator Obama's favor.

New polling data from Nevada seems to indicate the state leveling back to a tie, and most new polls show a slight lead for Obama. A New Opinion Research poll indicates he's up by 5% there.

Florida is a dead tie now, within the margin of error, some even leading for Obama. The same goes for Ohio, but with Obama up a little more there. I don't think the pick of Portland as McCain's VP will change there, as he's only regarded by Republicans in a predominantly conservative part of the state. He's relatively unknown elsewhere in the state.

Colorado is showing a dead heat, with a slight favor to Obama. This is good news for the Obama camp, since as long as he holds the Kerry states + Iowa and New Mexico (which he's certain to do), this would deliver the election without Ohio, Florida, or Virginia.

August 27, 2008 Electoral Map

No changes today in the count, just a number of changes in standings.

Minnesota is downgraded from a solid Obama to a leaning Obama. John Kerry only won this territory by between 2% and 3%. While I think Obama will win this state safely, and by larger margins, it's only temporarily downgraded because of the possibility of Tim Pawlenty being selected as McCain's running mate. Still, even if Pawlenty is picked, in this election, it's a long shot for Republicans to carry this state.

Pennsylvania gets the same VP treatment. The selection of former governor Tom Ridge could bring these poll numbers closer. Although the numbers are within only an 8% margin, Republicans haven't carried this state since Bush Sr., and it's very remote in this election for that to change. Again, the selection of Ridge may tighten the race, but with Biden under the Democratic ticket, this is most likely out of the Republicans' reach.

Mississippi, downgraded from solid to leaning. This state is also most likely to be safe for the Republican ticket, going red in the last 10 elections. However, Obama's campaign is doing much better than Democrats usually do here, and the numbers have tightened a little. A long shot for the dems, but for now, worthy of a lean.

South Carolina returns to a strong McCain lead. Despite the fact that the poll numbers aren't that far (~8 to 12%), they're steady, which seems to indicate Obama can't break through here. Watch for this state's status to change a few times over the course of the election.

The national trend still continues to be a toss-up. While tracking polls (a statistical nightmare), show the race in a dead heat, the standard national polls have Obama up between 4 and 5 percent. Look for this to trend in Obama's direction after he speaks at Invesco field, and the first post convention polls take place. Overall, Obama is just inside the margin of error, holding this as a toss-up for another day.

A bit on the predictions map, and national trend predictions

There are five categories a state can be placed in on the customizable RCP map.

-Solid Republican
-Leaning Republican
-Toss-up
-Leaning Democrat
-Solid Democrat

Solid predictions mean one thing: The state is solid. States like Kansas, Nebraska, and Idaho are safe republican. States like California, New York, Massachusetts, are safe for the Democrats.

A solid state can go to the other candidate in the election. If it's solid now, it means that it is going to take something to weaken it to leaning over time. A state that's solid the night before the election will not go to the other candidate (barring an unprecedented upset of either side).

Leaning means one of two things. There are leaning states, such as South Carolina or West Virginia, that according to other sites, are safe. Judging by polls, previous elections, campaign issues, etc, these states are most likely safe, but COULD, on a very remote chance, be in play.

States such as Colorado, or Montana, where the result is almost a dead heat, a statistical tie, things become a little different. If they poll and trend into one direction, they recieve a lean as well. For instance, at the time this post is being written, polls in Colorado are trending to Obama. With the convention in Colorado, the political spectrum in a heavily indpendent swing state could legitimately be shifting. Therefore, Colorado has an Obama lean.


At the bottom of each page, there is a picture the United States, with the words "National Trend" inside (from Pollster). This will be colored in the way the national popular vote is projected.

Leans generally mean polls are +3 in the direction, or anything less than +3, but with a growing trend. A safe national trend would likely only be if one candidate would have a sure victory.

August 26, 2008 - Electoral Map

First, a brief note on Hillary Clinton's speech.





Hillary Clinton did a fantastic job in convincing the American public that she is fully behind Barack Obama. Starting off speaking about Obama was a great move. Rather than being a look back, and getting gleamy eyed about her past, she came out looking energized to an Obama future. There were a number of things she did well in her speech. She tied examples, current issues, and especially womens rights, and stressed that these issues cannot be solved under John McCain. She showed that her beliefs on the issues, and those who supported her positions, are better off under Barack Obama. She really hit home with the PUMAs by addressing that they should not be in it for her, but rather for the issues. Hitting on women's rights, she hit home.



Now, on to the map:

I won't get into poll numbers tonight, but I'll explain the base map as I start this blog.

I have Pennsylvania as a strong Obama state. If McCain chooses Tom Ridge as his VP, this may change. Tom Ridge resonates well with the independant, conservative leaning suburbs. Shouldn't be enough to tip the state to a swing state, but it could put it to an Obama lead, with the very remote chance of a McCain upset.

Wisconsin, Michigan, Oregon, and Minnesota. Remember, trends are key in these predictions. The important issues to these states are heavily regarded and trusted in the Democratic party, especially the economy. Although polls are close, don't expect Obama to loose much, whereas McCain and undecided support is likely weaker.

New Mexico and Colorado, although close in the polls (Colorado moreso), are trending more liberally, especially with the convention being in Colorado. Colorado could potentially shift back to a toss-up.

Montana, typcially a red state, is trending more and more liberally. With the upset of John Tester over Conrad Burns in 2006, and the fact that Montana has a Democratic governor, look for this state to potentially go for Obama in 2008, the first time since Bill Clinton in 1992, (but not 96). It's certainly trending this way, especially since Bush victories were 20 and 25% respectively. It's also worth noting that polling was close during the Bush/Kerry election here, so this state can easily return to it's toss-up state.

Alaska Remains a toss-up, with the trend starting to close back to even, but the fact that Obama was polling up in this state, a McCain lead wouldn't make sense.